One
of the main purposes of writing blogs, it often seems to me, is to prove yourself
right. Preferably so many times that you
even come to believe it yourself.
I
try not to do too much of this, in case it becomes embarrassing, but I noticed
today some evidence of one of my repeated theses: in this case, that – despite
all the rhetoric about technology – change is actually slowing down and has
been for some time.
After all, I
have been driving in Minis and flying in Jumbo Jets my entire life (I’m 56), and
– although I know their internal machinery is very different – that is only
what you would expect.
The
first submarine entered service in the Royal Navy back in 1901, and half the
period since has seen the rapid development of submarine technology,
culminating in 1960 with the launch of the nuclear powered Dreadnought. The second half
has just been rapidly slowing variations on that theme.
See
my book Unheard, Unseen for details
(at least about early submariners).
In
the past generation, we have seen the return of real shops, real food, bricks, trams,
and the delivery of food to the door rather as our grandparents experienced
it. I know we also have mobile phones
and Facebook, and I suppose that does change the way people live, but not in
comparison to the vast changes going on a century ago.
So
what are we to make of the reinvention of the failing city of Detroit as a
centre of bicycle manufacturing? Like
Oxford, Detroit began as a bike manufacturing centre, and became as a result a
twentieth-century car manufacturer. Detroit seems to be edging back, according to
an article in the latest edition of Fortune.
Seven
bike manufacturers have set up there in the last few years. Detroit Bikes even invested 2.5m for a 50,000
sq ft factory.
What
is interesting about the article in Fortune
is their misunderstanding of the way Europeans think. They assume that it is the collapsing
population of Detroit, which means less traffic, which is encouraging people to
move around by bike instead. In Europe,
I think we see it the other way round: it is the complete impossibility of
navigating across London by car that is leading so many people to take up cycling.
It
isn’t exactly plus ca change, but it is an example of technological history
coming full circle. And this time,
history seems to be saying: do it right.
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